Rutan in Popular Mechanics ups the supply from 5,000/year to a 100,000 seat number for 12-year capacity. That’s 278 flights per year for each of his first five six-passenger craft and 3-4 flights per day. Perhaps they’ll be flying two per day out of both Mojave and New Mexico. That is not consistent with $200,000 ticket prices according to the Futron demand estimate from the 2002 survey data. The good news is that if they proceed with building that kind of capacity, it will be in their interest to fly it at marginal cost if they face sufficient competition whether or not they have broken even on their debt payments. The 12-year demand in the Futron Study updated white paper is 40,000. That’s a pretty big supply/demand mismatch which would cause the price to drop out if there are at least two vendors beyond Virgin Galactic with sufficient spare capacity. With (in alphabetical order) Armadillo Aerospace, Blue Origin, Masten Space Systems, Rocketplane-Kistler, and XCOR Aerospace producing vehicles and/or donating flights to Space Frontier Foundation Teachers in Space and/or getting their craft and/or spaceport licensed there rates to be more supply. Will this drive the price down more swiftly than Futron predicts?
It’s certainly in the interest of each firm to talk about huge fleets to try to get the competition not to build. Decisive win for investors or consumers?